Gay marriage recently suffered a devastating setback in Maine. This loss was made all the worse because it not only amended the constitution to outlaw gay marriage, it was also in a state that previously allowed it.
The self-doubt created from this loss has caused some to look to the federal government — instead of states — for gay rights legislation. This is a mistake. A state-orientated campaign is the only strategy that has any hope for success.
A bill legalizing gay marriage would be “dead on arrival” in the Senate. There would be the inevitable filibuster, and the Democrats would not have the votes to override it. Democrats might have a supermajority in the Senate, but they are not a cohesive bloc. This diversity in the Democratic Party is what has allowed it to take power and is not a bad thing; it’s just reality that the Senate will not legalize gay marriage without overwhelming public support. The only other option is to look to the states for gay rights legislation.
Gay rights legislation will happen. The demographics are with us. A recent study by the The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that 58 percent of 18- to 29-year-old respondents supported gay marriage.
Unfortunately, its support quickly tapers off to 22 percent among those 65 and older. There is a clear generational gap in views on gay marriage. Older Americans are against it while the younger generations are increasingly supportive of it. Conservatives and the Republican Party won this fight, but they have lost the war.
So what is the best short-term strategy? The answer probably lies in Washington state’s “everything but marriage” law.
This law gives civil unions all the benefits and protections of marriage without the name. Coupled with this, the same Pew study found 57 percent of respondents nationwide support civil unions.
This suggests that the best strategy is to fight for strong civil unions laws that over time can be expanded to full marriage equality. This gradual change will help to minimize backlash. It will allow conservatives time to adjust to societal changes and see that the world isn’t ending. This gradual process, while requiring the acceptance of discrimination for a bit longer, will pay dividends in the end because it will banish opponents to the irrational fringe of society.
Nick Miner is a UF student.
