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Sunday, December 01, 2024

UF may not make Tournament despite soft SEC

Every year in football, some "awesome" Big Ten team cruises through the regular season, picks up tons of hype and lands in either the national title game or some other prestigious BCS contest.

It's like welfare for college football. They rarely have to face a real challenge en route to a postseason payday, and it rightly angers Southeastern Conference and UF fans to see it happen.

Welcome to the other side of the fence.

When it comes to basketball, the Gators are the ones taking advantage of weak competition, and if they're able to make the NCAA Tournament, they have their sloppy conference to thank.

They have an RPI of 45, the nation's 107th-toughest schedule, and their only wins against the RPI top 50 are Washington and South Carolina.

Before last week, UF seemed like a lock for the Big Dance, but narrow losses at Kentucky and Georgia have sent it tumbling from first in the SEC East to fourth - behind Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina, which are in a three-way tie.

The 88-86 loss to the Bulldogs was humiliating, as it gave Georgia its first conference win, but it showed something else that could haunt the Gators down the stretch. They are missing an essential element for teams heading into the postseason: competitiveness.

I don't mean that they don't care if they win or lose, but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of competitive fire outside of guard Nick Calathes. As the intensity of games is ratcheted up at this stage, that can be exposed more than ever.

There was the last-second meltdown in Columbia, S.C., that led to a 70-69 loss against South Carolina. Then came the near-collapse against the Gamecocks at home, giving up a late 3-pointer and missing free throws to lose at Kentucky, and failing to outgun lowly Georgia on Saturday.

UF still has a great chance of getting to the tourney, though. ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has them slated as a No. 10 seed, and at 6-4 in the SEC, the Gators just need to scrape out three or four wins against Alabama, Vanderbilt, at LSU, Tennessee, at Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Those first two should be easy wins for a team with as much on the line as UF, but then the Gators will have to face four teams who are also vying for bids. And after that, they'll still have to avoid a one-and-done showing at the conference tournament.

UF got this far by feasting on weak opponents (non-conference strength of schedule is No. 244), but now comes the true test of this team's toughness and character.

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At this point, I can't imagine the Gators getting far if they make the tournament. Sure, they could have a hot shooting streak or Calathes could go nuts, but somewhere between now and then they'll have to overcome some adversity.

If they do that in the coming weeks, they'll make the tournament and maybe even win a game. If they don't, they could still slide into the postseason on those SEC food stamps, but don't expect anything more than a 40-minute showcase of Calathes' skills for NBA scouts.

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