The Favorite: Kansas
The model of consistency, Kansas secured its ninth straight Big 12 regular season title in 2013, earning a No. 1 seed for the fifth time in the past seven years. The Jayhawks’ hallmark is their defense, which ranks fifth in the nation in efficiency. Seven-foot center Jeff Withey is one of the NCAA’s premier shot blockers on the back line, and Travis Releford locks down on the perimeter. Offense is more of an adventure for Kansas, although the talent of Ben McLemore is undeniable. The athletic freshman shooting guard is a surefire lottery pick. Still, despite his driving ability and a 43.7% three-point shooting clip, McLemore seems reluctant to assert himself on offense. Part of the blame goes to the erratic point guard duo of Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe. Although both have been playing their best basketball of late, each has shown a penchant for turnovers and bad shots. Kevin Young is a defender and rebounder in the frontcourt, but teams don’t even bother to defend him. After a slow start to the year, highly-touted freshman Perry Ellis has started to eat into Young’s minutes. He averaged just 4.3 points and 3.4 rebounds in his first 26 games but has averaged 10.4 points and 5.1 rebounds over his past eight.
Top Challenge: Georgetown
Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter does everything for the Hoyas, averaging 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.9 steals and .9 blocks per game. He’s proven to be an effective scorer from inside and out, hitting 51.5% of his two-point shots and 42.7% of his threes. Markel Starks is one of the NCAA’s most underrated players, a guard who has morphed into a distributor without losing any of his scoring prowess. Georgetown has the worst offensive efficiency of any team seeded four or higher, but freshman guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera has provided a spark off the bench. Nate Lubick is an effective ball mover and shot blocker in the post, while Jabril Trawick brings toughness on the perimeter. Despite losing sophomore Greg Whittington and his 12.1 points per game to injury on Jan. 8, the Hoya’s offense actually improved during the second half of the season. Georgetown scored 100.2 points per 100 possessions before Whittington’s injury compared to 105.7 points per 100 possessions after.
Storyline to Watch: Another magical run for VCU?
Virginia Commonwealth and coach Shaka Smart made a magical run to the Final Four as a 12 seed in 2011, and the Rams are in position to do it again. This time, people will see it coming. VCU lives and dies with its pressing “Havoc” defense, which forces turnovers on an NCAA-best 28.7 percent of opponent’s possessions. Those turnovers create transition opportunities for an otherwise inefficient offense. VCU draws the perfect first-round opponent in No. 12 seed Akron, which will be playing without suspended point guard Alex Abreu after he was arrested on charges of trafficking marijuana. If VCU can survive a likely matchup with Michigan, the NCAA’s leader in not turning the ball over, they could face turnover prone No. 1 seed Kansas in the Sweet 16 and turnover prone No. 2 seed Georgetown in the Elite Eight. The Rams could hardly ask for a better road.
Player to Watch: Trey Burke, Michigan guard and Nate Wolters, South Dakota State guard
Burke and Wolters will go shot-for-shot in the first weekend’s best individual matchup. The nation’s second most efficient offense ran through Burke, who averaged 19.2 points per game with 6.7 assists and a 3.3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. The sophomore superstar is an all-around threat, penetrating the lane at will and shooting 40.1 percent from three. While significantly less athletic than Burke, Wolters posts a similar stat lines and carries South Dakota State on a nightly basis. The senior ranks fourth in the NCAA with 22.7 points per game on 39 percent three-point shooting. He also chips in 5.8 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game. Not many NBA talents come out of the Summit League, but Wolters is the exception to the rule.
Sleeper: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers enter the Big Dance with just five wins in their past 16 games, but they’re still dangerous as an 11 seed. With wins against Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin, Minnesota has proven it can hang with anyone. The Golden Gophers also drew the perfect first-round matchup. Minnesota leads the nation in offensive rebounding and should thrive on the glass against UCLA, the fourth-worst defensive rebounding team in the field. With Bruins freshman Jordan Adams out for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the Golden Gophers are actually a favorite to advance.
Contact Greg Luca at gluca@alligator.org.
